Japan’s new climate and energy targets are a far cry from what’s needed to meet Paris Agreement goals

 

February 19, 2025
Climate Action Network Japan (CAN-Japan)

On February 18, 2025, Japan set the direction of its climate policy with the submission of its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the passage of three policies in a cabinet decision: the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, and the GX (“Green Transformation”) 2040 Vision. Together, these policies show an inadequate, unambitious, and dangerous direction for Japan that puts the global Paris Agreement goals at risk.

Although this round of NDCs are to be informed by the outcome of the first Global Stocktake, Japan’s announced 2035 emissions reduction target in its latest NDC is far short of what is needed to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5℃ from pre-industrial levels. Although analysis has concluded that a reduction of at least 79-81% (compared to 2013 levels) is necessary for a 1.5°C-aligned domestic emission reduction pathway, the submitted target of a 60% reduction is completely inadequate and shows a stark contrast to its G7 partner the United Kingdom, who recently-announced a 1.5℃-aligned 2035 reduction target in their own NDC.

At 2023’s COP28 summit, Japan agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, and as a G7 member has committed to both phase out coal-fired power and achieve a predominantly decarbonized energy sector by 2035. However, Japan’s new energy targets announced in the 7th Strategic Energy Plan aim for 30-40% “thermal energy” in 2040, including coal. Furthermore, Japan’s planned 2040 energy mix includes only 40-50% renewables- an increase of only 2-14% in the ten years following its 2030 target of 36-38%.

Japan’s energy strategy includes a number of measures that provide incentives and subsidies for extending the life of thermal power plants by co-firing fossil fuels with hydrogen/ammonia and doubling down on unproven carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Moreover, Japan has been pushing its fossil fuel technologies to numerous other countries through an initiative it calls the Asia Zero Emissions Community (AZEC), which will significantly slow down decarbonization in developing countries, preventing a just transition and jeopardizing the global 1.5 goal.

Last year was determined to be the hottest year in recorded history with unprecedented climate disasters across the world continuing into 2025. The world has now entered the second half of the critical decade for climate action, and Japan must consider its role and responsibilities in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement by presenting an ambitious 2035 emissions reduction target based on science, accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and expand renewable energy in a 1.5℃-aligned pathway.

Reference

Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (submitted on 18 February, 2025)
https://www.env.go.jp/content/000291805.pdf

Reactions from CAN-Japan members

Masayoshi Iyoda, Japan Campaigner at 350.org:

Right after the Kyoto Protocol’s 20th anniversary, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba squandered a rare opportunity to demonstrate Japan’s climate leadership in our burning world. Instead of heeding the people’s calls for a science-aligned 81% emissions reduction target, PM Ishiba bowed to pressure from fossil fuel interests. This is a huge setback for Japan’s transition to a fair and just renewable energy future. The new climate and energy policies place false solutions, such as fossil gas, nuclear, ammonia-coal co-firing power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the center of Japan’s climate action without a clear pathway to fossil fuel phaseout. This jeopardizes Japan’s genuine green growth through renewable energy and energy efficiency. But the fight isn’t over. People are increasingly aware of how the climate crisis threatens their health, livelihoods, and future generations. They will continue demanding the government to revise its climate policy to protect our children’s future.

Kazue Suzuki, Climate Change and Energy campaigner at Greenpeace Japan:

We strongly oppose the plan’s low renewable energy target, continued dependence on coal-fired power, the shift back to nuclear energy, and the inadequate greenhouse gas reduction targets. To align with the 1.5°C climate goal, at least 72% of the power supply in 2040 should come from renewable sources, which is entirely feasible with current technology and the right policy interventions. As for nuclear energy, despite numerous challenges—including earthquake safety measures, spent fuel disposal, and aging infrastructure—we cannot support a policy shift toward nuclear power just 14 years after the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi disaster. Additionally, considering the carbon budget needed to meet the 1.5°C target and our responsibilities as an industrialized nation, the greenhouse gas reduction target for FY2035 should be a 78% decrease. Regarding the policy-making process, energy decisions should reflect the diverse perspectives of the public, ensuring greater accountability, better incorporation of public feedback, and the voices of residents living near nuclear facilities.

The Climate Reality Project Japan:

The climate policy framework outlined in the latest Cabinet decision are not aligned with the 1.5°C target and fail to acknowledge Japan’s responsibility as a major historical emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the world’s largest financiers of fossil fuels.
We urge Japan to fulfill its international responsibilities and contribute to a sustainable future for people worldwide by adopting more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets and formulating a concrete implementation plan that explicitly outlines the phasing out of fossil fuels.
To achieve an 81% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2035, it is essential to strengthen energy efficiency measures, phase out inefficient thermal power plants, eliminate all coal-fired power generation, and expand the share of renewable energy to 80%.
Furthermore, as a community of individuals from diverse industries and organizations, we strongly call for the establishment and enhancement of a transparent process that ensures public voices are reflected in climate policy-making.

Mie Asaoka, President at Kiko Network:

The government’s climate and energy policy presented in this cabinet decision is “decarbonization” in name only. It fails to deviate in any way from the status quo of maintaining and preserving nuclear and coal-fired power generation, and falls far short of the necessary significant reductions. The 2035 target, as indicated in the NDC to be submitted to the UN, is a 60% reduction from 2013 levels (about 54% reduction from 2019 levels), which remains a rather unambitious target even in light of the global 60% reduction from 2019 levels (about 66% reduction from 2013 levels) required for the 1.5°C target indicated by the IPCC. In addition, many objections to the inadequate targets set by the government were raised at the Council meetings where this was discussed, and there were calls for further meetings to address the concerns expressed in public comments, but the government silenced such opinions and reached this decision without deliberation. Kiko Network clearly opposes the Cabinet decision and hopes for a society where sustainable climate and energy policies are decided through thorough debate in the Diet and new processes for citizen participation.

 

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Contact

Climate Action Network Japan（CAN-Japan）
https://www.can-japan.org/
E-mail：secretariat@can-japan.org